Good economy for consumers, companies

News, OC RegisterJune 2013

Corporate / Corporate consulting

The OC Register discusses resident Economist Adrian Fleissig's newest "Southern California Leading Indicator" reporting no economic turndown in Southern California and an overall improving statewide economy in California.

By: Kevin Sablan


Southern California businesses and consumers can look forward to more hiring and stepped-up demand for goods and services, according to a report released this week from Cal State Fullerton. 

The university's Southern California Leading Indicator, which forecasts economic activity three to six months out, rose to 109.74 for the first quarter of the year, up 3.5 percent over the same time last year. The index has risen for 14 consecutive quarters, and the latest results mark a record high for the report, which was first published in 2000. 

"There is no concern about an economic slowdown here in Southern California," said CSUF economist Adrian Fleissig, the report's author What that means to Orange County residents who don't hold economics degrees is that business owners will likely continue hiring workers, and consumers should expect an increased supply of goods and services, Fleissig says. Companies also should see a short-term increase in demand for their goods and services. 

The CSUF Department of Economics uses four regional measurements and three national numbers to calculate the index. The regional components are unemployment rates, nonfarm payroll employment, building permits and the Pacific region Consumer Confidence Index, which was the only portion of the formula that did not show positive growth this quarter. The national factors are interest rate, money supply, and Standard & Poor's 500 stock index. 

The report also shows an improving statewide economy in April compared with March. California unemployment decreased in April, though the statewide unemployment rate of 9 percent remains higher than the U.S. rate of 7.5 percent. Orange County's unemployment rate is considerably lower, at 5.7 percent. 

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